Rizika

Geopolitika se dá měřit – ne pocitem z titulků, ale mechanicky: kolik prostoru zabírá napětí v novinách (GPR), jak velká je nejistota kolem hospodářské politiky (EPU) a jak strukturální riziko oceňuje trh přes obranný sektor. Důležitý kontext: čisté geopolitické šoky trhy většinou vstřebají rychleji, než se čeká – tyhle teploměry jsou kontext k momentu a likviditě, ne důvod k panice.

Geopolitické napětí: index GPR Podíl novinových článků o geopolitickém napětí v 10 velkých světových denících (Caldara–Iacoviello, akademický standard). Týdenní průměr denní řady. Klíčové je srovnání s ročním klouzavým průměrem – úrovní, na kterou si trhy zvykly; čárkovaně dlouhodobý průměr pro historický kontext.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumGPR (týdenní průměr)Roční klouzavý průměrPrůměr od 1985
2024-01-01 145.2119.9104
2024-01-08 158.5121.1104
2024-01-15 143.6121.8104
2024-01-22 170123.4104
2024-01-29 150.6123.9104
2024-02-05 120.1123.8104
2024-02-12 146.2124.5104
2024-02-19 159.5125.2104
2024-02-26 145.5125.8104
2024-03-04 122.3125.9104
2024-03-11 146.6126.9104
2024-03-18 125.5127.5104
2024-03-25 141.1128.6104
2024-04-01 143.7129.3104
2024-04-08 151.3130.2104
2024-04-15 195.4131.9104
2024-04-22 147.8132.5104
2024-04-29 127.6133.2104
2024-05-06 132133.7104
2024-05-13 139.6134.2104
2024-05-20 124.5134.8104
2024-05-27 126.5134.9104
2024-06-03 106.4134.9104
2024-06-10 111.8135.2104
2024-06-17 119.2135.3104
2024-06-24 111.8135.3104
2024-07-01 86.4135.1104
2024-07-08 85134.5104
2024-07-15 97.1134.3104
2024-07-22 88.5134.2104
2024-07-29 119.6134.5104
2024-08-05 143135.1104
2024-08-12 130.9135.7104
2024-08-19 136.4136.9104
2024-08-26 149.1138.1104
2024-09-02 136139.2104
2024-09-09 128.9139.6104
2024-09-16 97.2138.9104
2024-09-23 148.4140.2104
2024-09-30 145.5141.4104
2024-10-07 105.9139104
2024-10-14 110.6135.9104
2024-10-21 151.9134.7104
2024-10-28 126.6133.7104
2024-11-04 90.2132.3104
2024-11-11 95131.5104
2024-11-18 173132104
2024-11-25 169.4132.7104
2024-12-02 142.4132.7104
2024-12-09 158.7132.9104
2024-12-16 131133104
2024-12-23 128.2132.4104
2024-12-30 105.5131.7104
2025-01-06 89.8130.4104
2025-01-13 104129.6104
2025-01-20 121128.7104
2025-01-27 119.3128.1104
2025-02-03 120.2128.1104
2025-02-10 116.8127.5104
2025-02-17 172.7127.7104
2025-02-24 134.5127.5104
2025-03-03 185.6128.8104
2025-03-10 200129.8104
2025-03-17 177.8130.8104
2025-03-24 133.8130.6104
2025-03-31 133.5130.4104
2025-04-07 133.5130.1104
2025-04-14 152129.3104
2025-04-21 155129.4104
2025-04-28 121.3129.3104
2025-05-05 185.3130.3104
2025-05-12 170.9130.9104
2025-05-19 166.1131.7104
2025-05-26 171.4132.6104
2025-06-02 177.7133.9104
2025-06-09 188.9135.4104
2025-06-16 258.8138.1104
2025-06-23 270.5141.2104
2025-06-30 119.5141.8104
2025-07-07 121.4142.5104
2025-07-14 129.4143.1104
2025-07-21 143.6144.2104
2025-07-28 149.6144.8104
2025-08-04 138.5144.7104
2025-08-11 149145104
2025-08-18 134.1145104
2025-08-25 131.3144.6104
2025-09-01 127144.5104
2025-09-08 129.7144.5104
2025-09-15 121.8145104
2025-09-22 115.1144.3104
2025-09-29 161.7144.6104
2025-10-06 149.7145.5104
2025-10-13 152.5146.3104
2025-10-20 148.7146.2104
2025-10-27 113.7146104
2025-11-03 107.8146.3104
2025-11-10 85.1146.1104
2025-11-17 93.2144.6104
2025-11-24 140.4144104
2025-12-01 113.5143.5104
2025-12-08 127142.9104
2025-12-15 147.1143.2104
2025-12-22 133.3143.3104
2025-12-29 159.6144.3104
2026-01-05 210.2146.6104
2026-01-12 142.7147.4104
2026-01-19 165.6148.2104
2026-01-26 142.3148.7104
2026-02-02 131.3148.9104
2026-02-09 87.6148.3104
2026-02-16 97146.9104
2026-02-23 171.9147.6104
2026-03-02 360.8150.9104
2026-03-09 334.4153.5104
2026-03-16 304.4156104
2026-03-23 299.9159.2104
2026-03-30 263.5161.7104
2026-04-06 301164.9104
2026-04-13 279167.3104
2026-04-20 203.6168.3104
2026-04-27 190.6169.6104
2026-05-04 234.7170.5104
2026-05-11 205.7171.2104
2026-05-18 191.4171.7104
2026-05-25 176.4171.8104
2026-06-01 162.1171.5104
2026-06-08 193.1171.6104
2026-06-15 211.8170.7104
2026-06-22 151168.4104
2026-06-29 101.8168104
2026-07-06 156.6168.7104
2026-07-13 190.9169.9104
2026-07-20 207.4171.1104
2026-07-27 154.4171.2104
2026-08-03 139.2171.2104
2026-08-10 103170.3104
2026-08-17 149.8170.6104
2026-08-24 146170.9104
2026-08-31 168.9171.7104
Nejistota z hospodářské politiky: index EPU (USA) Baker–Bloom–Davis: novinový index nejistoty kolem cel, sankcí, daní a rozpočtů. Doplněk ke GPR – obchodní válka se projeví tady dřív než v geopolitickém indexu. Týdenní průměr denní řady z FREDu, roční klouzavý průměr jako aktuální normál; čárkovaně průměr od 2015.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumEPU (týdenní průměr)Roční klouzavý průměrPrůměr od 2015
2024-01-01 113.3129.4163.3
2024-01-08 229.6129.2163.3
2024-01-15 123.9128.5163.3
2024-01-22 104.1127.5163.3
2024-01-29 128.7127.5163.3
2024-02-05 141.5127.6163.3
2024-02-12 154.8128163.3
2024-02-19 114128.2163.3
2024-02-26 107.3128.2163.3
2024-03-04 133.8128.8163.3
2024-03-11 137.8127.7163.3
2024-03-18 117.9126.9163.3
2024-03-25 78.8125.3163.3
2024-04-01 119.1125.3163.3
2024-04-08 153.4125.4163.3
2024-04-15 117.2125.4163.3
2024-04-22 96.7124.7163.3
2024-04-29 84.2122.8163.3
2024-05-06 116.3121.4163.3
2024-05-13 96.9120.1163.3
2024-05-20 77.1116.9163.3
2024-05-27 77.7116163.3
2024-06-03 88.1116163.3
2024-06-10 78.1115.3163.3
2024-06-17 94.6113.9163.3
2024-06-24 89.5113.2163.3
2024-07-01 224.1115.9163.3
2024-07-08 139.4116.9163.3
2024-07-15 152.8117.5163.3
2024-07-22 94.2117.1163.3
2024-07-29 71.8116.8163.3
2024-08-05 122.6117.7163.3
2024-08-12 163.5118.7163.3
2024-08-19 78.1118163.3
2024-08-26 74.4117.3163.3
2024-09-02 159.5119.3163.3
2024-09-09 71.7118.9163.3
2024-09-16 92.6119.1163.3
2024-09-23 72.4118.3163.3
2024-09-30 90.2117.7163.3
2024-10-07 136.6116.4163.3
2024-10-14 105.5115.3163.3
2024-10-21 154.7116.7163.3
2024-10-28 163.1118.2163.3
2024-11-04 275.5120.6163.3
2024-11-11 255.9123.1163.3
2024-11-18 233125.6163.3
2024-11-25 138.7126.6163.3
2024-12-02 189.8127.8163.3
2024-12-09 193130163.3
2024-12-16 220.3130.5163.3
2024-12-23 160.4130.9163.3
2024-12-30 227.4133.1163.3
2025-01-06 307.9134.6163.3
2025-01-13 218.1136.4163.3
2025-01-20 177.7137.9163.3
2025-01-27 303.5141.2163.3
2025-02-03 406.4146.3163.3
2025-02-10 266.5148.5163.3
2025-02-17 345.4152.9163.3
2025-02-24 356.6157.7163.3
2025-03-03 564.3166163.3
2025-03-10 524.8173.4163.3
2025-03-17 529.2181.3163.3
2025-03-24 408.6187.7163.3
2025-03-31 607.6197.1163.3
2025-04-07 669.7207163.3
2025-04-14 465.3213.7163.3
2025-04-21 465.5220.8163.3
2025-04-28 660.3231.9163.3
2025-05-05 555.1240.3163.3
2025-05-12 600.8250163.3
2025-05-19 333.2254.9163.3
2025-05-26 447.4262163.3
2025-06-02 431.7268.6163.3
2025-06-09 360.1274.1163.3
2025-06-16 374.5279.4163.3
2025-06-23 344.6284.3163.3
2025-06-30 508.1289.8163.3
2025-07-07 352.8293.9163.3
2025-07-14 459299.8163.3
2025-07-21 238.6302.6163.3
2025-07-28 394.1308.8163.3
2025-08-04 254.2311.3163.3
2025-08-11 266.6313.3163.3
2025-08-18 250.3316.6163.3
2025-08-25 356.1322163.3
2025-09-01 356.8325.8163.3
2025-09-08 324330.7163.3
2025-09-15 314.9334.9163.3
2025-09-22 371.1340.7163.3
2025-09-29 378.3346.2163.3
2025-10-06 345.1350.2163.3
2025-10-13 375355.4163.3
2025-10-20 335358.9163.3
2025-10-27 352.4362.5163.3
2025-11-03 334.2363.7163.3
2025-11-10 352.7365.5163.3
2025-11-17 362.2368163.3
2025-11-24 271.7370.6163.3
2025-12-01 304.6372.8163.3
2025-12-08 475.9378.2163.3
2025-12-15 320380.1163.3
2025-12-22 306.7382.9163.3
2025-12-29 358.8385.5163.3
2026-01-05 348.2386.2163.3
2026-01-12 317388.1163.3
2026-01-19 428.3393163.3
2026-01-26 290.6392.7163.3
2026-02-02 328.4391.2163.3
2026-02-09 308.7392163.3
2026-02-16 400.3393.1163.3
2026-02-23 415.3394.2163.3
2026-03-02 460.9392.2163.3
2026-03-09 417.5390.1163.3
2026-03-16 375387.2163.3
2026-03-23 382.1386.7163.3
2026-03-30 396.8382.6163.3
2026-04-06 354.3376.6163.3
2026-04-13 325.1373.9163.3
2026-04-20 315.3371163.3
2026-04-27 470367.3163.3
2026-05-04 424.2364.8163.3
2026-05-11 330.4359.6163.3
2026-05-18 327.2359.5163.3
2026-05-25 295.2356.6163.3
2026-06-01 315.1354.3163.3
2026-06-08 261.4352.4163.3
2026-06-15 438.1353.6163.3
2026-06-22 429.1355.3163.3
2026-06-29 245.8350.2163.3
2026-07-06 256.1348.4163.3
2026-07-13 308.3345.5163.3
2026-07-20 335.6347.3163.3
2026-07-27 285.4345.2163.3
2026-08-03 277.4345.7163.3
2026-08-10 240.1345.2163.3
2026-08-17 186343.9163.3
2026-08-24 212.4341.2163.3
2026-08-31 230.2338.7163.3
Trh hlasuje: obranný sektor vs S&P 500 Poměr ceny obranných ETF k S&P 500, indexováno na 100 na začátku grafu (evropská řada od startu EUAD v říjnu 2024). Trvalý růst poměru = trh oceňuje strukturální zbrojení, bez ohledu na jednotlivé titulky.
Zobrazit data v tabulce
DatumUSA: obrana vs S&P 500 (ITA)Evropa: obrana vs S&P 500 (EUAD)
2024-01-01 100–
2024-01-08 97–
2024-01-15 95.3–
2024-01-22 94.6–
2024-01-29 94.5–
2024-02-05 94–
2024-02-12 95–
2024-02-19 94.1–
2024-02-26 94.2–
2024-03-04 95.4–
2024-03-11 94–
2024-03-18 94.2–
2024-03-25 95.2–
2024-04-01 95.6–
2024-04-08 94.4–
2024-04-15 97.6–
2024-04-22 96.2–
2024-04-29 97.9–
2024-05-06 97.9–
2024-05-13 96.6–
2024-05-20 96.6–
2024-05-27 97.4–
2024-06-03 96.5–
2024-06-10 92.2–
2024-06-17 93.1–
2024-06-24 91.5–
2024-07-01 90–
2024-07-08 89.6–
2024-07-15 92–
2024-07-22 97.6–
2024-07-29 97.1–
2024-08-05 99.2–
2024-08-12 97.9–
2024-08-19 97.1–
2024-08-26 98.8–
2024-09-02 97.7–
2024-09-09 97.5–
2024-09-16 97.8–
2024-09-23 97.8–
2024-09-30 99.7–
2024-10-07 99.3–
2024-10-14 99.7–
2024-10-21 97.3100
2024-10-28 95.3101.6
2024-11-04 98.1100.5
2024-11-11 96.598.1
2024-11-18 97.797.2
2024-11-25 97.297.2
2024-12-02 94.297.6
2024-12-09 92.496.6
2024-12-16 93.196.5
2024-12-23 93.496.2
2024-12-30 92.996.2
2025-01-06 94.199.4
2025-01-13 95.599.2
2025-01-20 97102.7
2025-01-27 97.9103.5
2025-02-03 98103
2025-02-10 94.8106.5
2025-02-17 93.7108.7
2025-02-24 98121.2
2025-03-03 97.8136.7
2025-03-10 101.1146.4
2025-03-17 103.1140.9
2025-03-24 103.6140.8
2025-03-31 100.6139.5
2025-04-07 104.9141.9
2025-04-14 106.8148.9
2025-04-21 105.6145.2
2025-04-28 107150.7
2025-05-05 108.8152.6
2025-05-12 108.7147.8
2025-05-19 111156.5
2025-05-26 113159.7
2025-06-02 114.1158.6
2025-06-09 113.4155.7
2025-06-16 113.9158
2025-06-23 114.4159.9
2025-06-30 112.1154.6
2025-07-07 114.1160.2
2025-07-14 117.2161.1
2025-07-21 116.7153.9
2025-07-28 118.1153.8
2025-08-04 115.6151.4
2025-08-11 113.7153.2
2025-08-18 113.8151.2
2025-08-25 115.4151.1
2025-09-01 114.8151.4
2025-09-08 113.8157.5
2025-09-15 115.1156.3
2025-09-22 116.7160.9
2025-09-29 117.6163
2025-10-06 118.5159
2025-10-13 116.4150.3
2025-10-20 120.2151.8
2025-10-27 118.8150.2
2025-11-03 117150.8
2025-11-10 115.1148.6
2025-11-17 112.9142.2
2025-11-24 112.7136.5
2025-12-01 110.8137.3
2025-12-08 115.3140.6
2025-12-15 117.6143.4
2025-12-22 118.2141.7
2025-12-29 121.6147.5
2026-01-05 125.6159.1
2026-01-12 131.9160.1
2026-01-19 127.7158.6
2026-01-26 125.7152.2
2026-02-02 126.8149
2026-02-09 129156.4
2026-02-16 132.3159.5
2026-02-23 133157.1
2026-03-02 134.8152.1
2026-03-09 129.6150.1
2026-03-16 128.2144.7
2026-03-23 127.3142.2
2026-03-30 126.4149.1
2026-04-06 126.2147.1
2026-04-13 122146.1
2026-04-20 112.9128.9
2026-04-27 112.1131.1
2026-05-04 113.2128.2
2026-05-11 109.8117.4
2026-05-18 112.9123.9
2026-05-25 116.3129.8
2026-06-01 116.2125.8
2026-06-08 117.7127.8
2026-06-15 119.3130.1
2026-06-22 121.1128.7
2026-06-29 124.2136.9
2026-07-06 118.1129.3
2026-07-13 115.7128.8
2026-07-20 121.2133.7
2026-07-27 119.6138.3
2026-08-03 120.9139.7
2026-08-10 121.6141.8
2026-08-17 115.6138.5
2026-08-24 112.8135.3
2026-08-31 109.2130.5
2026-09-04 109.2130.5

Sázkové trhy: geopolitika

Nejobchodovanější otevřené geopolitické otázky na Polymarketu – pravděpodobnosti oceněné skutečnými penězi sázkařů. Výběr je čistě mechanický (objem za 24 hodin), týdenní snímek; živé kurzy po prokliku.

OtázkaOdpověď trhuŠanceObjem 24 h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 36 % 917 tis. $
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes 59 % 483 tis. $
Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes 64 % 339 tis. $
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Yes 58 % 319 tis. $
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes 25 % 287 tis. $
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 56 % 246 tis. $